Yield Curve Spread (10Y-2Y)
—
Positive (normal)
Inverted (recession warning)
VIX (Volatility Index)
—
<20 Low vol
20-30 Elevated
>30 High fear
High Yield Credit Spread
—
<3% Calm
3-5% Watch
>5% Stress
Unemployment Rate
—
Sahm Rule triggers when 3-month avg rises 0.5pp+ above 12-month low